Written By Basilio Chen

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China national GDP has been coming consistently down in the past 2 years, not expected to be 6.9%. 

Here is a chart of 3rd Quarter, year over year (2014 to 2015), province by province.

We can see that there are regional local provincial economies doing very well (above the average, 7%), such as Chongqing, GuiZhou and Tibet (11%, 10.8% and 9.8%, respectively).  As a matter of fact, 24 provinces of 31 have growth above 7% leaving 17 below the average.  Heilongjiang and Shanxi at the lowest range of 2.8% and below.


However, the key economies composing 75% of the GDP (in 2014 order: Guangdong, Shandong, Zhejiang, Henan, Hebei, Liaoning, Sichuan, Hubei, Hunan, Fujian, Shanghai, and Beijing).

And if the top 55% (Guangdong, Shandong, Zhejiang, Henan, Hebei, Liaoning, and Sichuan).


The smallest 15 include the smallest (Tibet), Chongqing #21, Guizhou #26, Jianxi #18. Tianjin #17.  Which are also some of the major percentage contributor to the growth percents above normal (7%).


Essentially, 5 of the smallest provincial economies contribute above average (9%) with the largest 5 economies (in order of size: Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, Henan) to be above 8%.  This leaves 21 provinces between 2.7% and 8%.

Global trade remains down and especially as shown by transportation shipping.


Industrial commodities especially the key industrial material used for growth economies, copper, is back testing its 2.22 low with treat to breaking lower soon.


Based on forecast indicators, the economy remains weak for the immediate future with tendencies to go lower.  The bottom does not appear to be in place yet.