Written By Basilio Chen

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China national GDP has been coming consistently down in the past 2 years, not expected to be 6.9%. 

Here is a chart of 3rd Quarter, year over year (2014 to 2015), province by province.

We can see that there are regional local provincial economies doing very well (above the average, 7%), such as Chongqing, GuiZhou and Tibet (11%, 10.8% and 9.8%, respectively).  As a matter of fact, 24 provinces of 31 have growth above 7% leaving 17 below the average.  Heilongjiang and Shanxi at the lowest range of 2.8% and below.

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However, the key economies composing 75% of the GDP (in 2014 order: Guangdong, Shandong, Zhejiang, Henan, Hebei, Liaoning, Sichuan, Hubei, Hunan, Fujian, Shanghai, and Beijing).

And if the top 55% (Guangdong, Shandong, Zhejiang, Henan, Hebei, Liaoning, and Sichuan).

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The smallest 15 include the smallest (Tibet), Chongqing #21, Guizhou #26, Jianxi #18. Tianjin #17.  Which are also some of the major percentage contributor to the growth percents above normal (7%).

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Essentially, 5 of the smallest provincial economies contribute above average (9%) with the largest 5 economies (in order of size: Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, Henan) to be above 8%.  This leaves 21 provinces between 2.7% and 8%.

Global trade remains down and especially as shown by transportation shipping.

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Industrial commodities especially the key industrial material used for growth economies, copper, is back testing its 2.22 low with treat to breaking lower soon.

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Based on forecast indicators, the economy remains weak for the immediate future with tendencies to go lower.  The bottom does not appear to be in place yet.