Archive for category Silver and Gold

Gold Status

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This is an update to the status of Gold.

There is around 35,000 Tons of gold available for investment in the form of coins or bars (nearly 20%).  The majority is in the form of jewelry (49%).  With a total gold on unearthed to be 171,000 Tons with another 52,000 Tons not yet mined giving a total hypothetical figure of 223,000 Tons of available gold on earth.

World gold holdings (2011)
(Source: United States Geological Survey)
Location Gold holdings Share of total
(in tonnes) world gold holdings
Total 171,300 100%
Jewelry 84,300 49.20%
Investment (bars, coins) 33,000 19.26%
Central banks 29,500 17.20%
Industrial 20,800 12.14%
Unaccounted 3,700 2.20%

 

World Gold Holding

As at June 2014 (Top 40 based on World Gold Council data)

Rank Country/Organization Gold holdings
(in tonnes)
1 clip_image002
United States

8,133.50
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Germany

3,384.20
3
     
 

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International Monetary Fund

2,814.00
4 Italy 2,451.80
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France

2,435.40
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Russia

1,094.70
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China

1,054.10
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  Switzerland

1,040.00
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Japan

765.2
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Netherlands

612.5
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India

557.7
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Turkey

512.9
13

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European Central Bank

503.2
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Taiwan

423.6
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Portugal

382.5
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Venezuela

367.6
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Saudi Arabia

322.9
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United Kingdom

310.3
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Lebanon

286.8
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Spain

281.6
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Austria

280
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Belgium

227.4
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Philippines

194.3

 

From 1960 until 2000, South Africa was the largest producer of Gold to be surpassed now by China which is producing approximately 400 tons per year.

The world total available gold is estimated to be around 170,000 Tons.  Gold is considered a rare precious mineral given that is finite in nature.  Having been unearthed and produced for thousands of years, by 1500, the available gold unearth was around 13,000 Ton.

Top 40 Mines in the World

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Top 40 Undeveloped Mines in the World

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Top 40 Mines in the World by Quality

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Top 25 Largest Mines & Deposits in Asia/Oceania

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Top 12 Countries with Most Gold Mining

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Top Countries by Quality of Gold

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Recent Weakness of Gold

Gold prices have dropped significantly from its high in 2011 and reaching a low of 1,200 per ounce as of this writing in Oct 19, 2014.

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One of the Major Reasons

As long as the US Dollar is in uptrend, the Gold prices will tend to be on a downtrend.

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Oct 2014 Gold & Silver Update

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Lower lows for gold and silver.

gold oct 2014

Gold testing triple support with MACD negative diverging.

Silver already below support.

silver 0ct 2014

Hot News

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This appeared in the News today that is of great precedence.

  • Russia ratifies Economic Union and readies trade in currencies other than dollar

A new era of trade done primarily outside the dollar, and in national currencies such as the Yuan and Euro. This Union already has the support of several BRICS nations, as well as associate countries, and will help facilitate trade being done in a much smoother and easier way than what is currently used through SWIFT or other Western banking processes

  • China will use gold and gold pricing to force global currency reset

China is recognizing that physical gold is the ultimate catalyst to force an end to the [control] d… of purely fiat finance, and that by revaluing gold to its rightful price will have the effect of both protecting their own currency, and wresting financial control away from the … dollar hegemony.

Silver on the Move

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As expected, silver has broken UP.  Then resistance is 22.0 level.

 

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With this weekly chart, we see Silver still have a lot of room for growth.  It has already passed strongly the 20.0 level and the next level after 22.0 is 28.0.

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As an additional piece of information, Baltic Index has deteriorated further.

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Silver and Gold On The Move

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After a correction from its peak in 2012, this week gold and silver made a strong move crossing over major resistance at 1280 settling above 1300.

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In the weekly charts, we can see the building of the base much clearer including the negative divergence for the past year since June 2013.  In both, daily and weekly charts, gold has crossed its first major resistance with strong impulse.

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The charts for silver represent the same however as an investment silver would represent a better return.

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Weekly.

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Other charts of interest in the background is the Baltic Index.

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BDI remains very anemic and in fact threatening a breakdown toward the low of 700.

Copper prices also does not show much strength in the growing economies like China.

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And steel (building of infrastructure and real estate and manufacturing equipment) is further repressed.

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Gold and Silver Correction – What’s Next

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Gold and Silver have been correcting since the parabolic move in August 2011.
The main concept to keep in mind without following the daily moves up and down of Gold and Silver is that last week end Spain announced that it will seek a US$125 Billion bail out package from the European Union. The EU will provide that bail out in the form of issuing new Euro currency.
From time immemorial, when paper money becomes too abundant, as now, it loses it value and people turns back to precious metals: Gold and Silver.
Using 1913 as the base reference year, the US Dollar today is worth $0.046 (4.6 cents) in 2010 terms (latest data). That means the US Dollar has already lost 95.4% of it’s the creation of the Federal Reserve who was tasked with the job o f currency watch in 1913. And if we base the value of today’s US Dollar as compared to 2001, it is worth $0.813 (in 2010 latest statistics). That’s a 18.7% devaluation since 2001. Today in 2012 is likely less because the US government alone has printed an addition Trillion dollars. Extrapolating for 2012, we have that a US Dollar is worth now 78.9% of what it used to be in 2001. That’s a 21% devaluation. Consider it also a 21% inflation (by reduction in purchasing power).


is chart.

A from 1970 to now, see th
At this exact moment, most people are not totally aware but as the knowledge becomes gradually known, the masses will come rushing back in to purchase gold and silver and a new valuation will take place increasing gold and silver exponentially.

As of now, volume purchases has been slowing down. From a contrarian perspective (early adopter),, the stage is set for the next big move.

Gold Volume Purchasing Declining – Favorable

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Investment in Gold is best done holding the physical gold compared to gold stocks. However, gold stock information may be more readily available at least for short term purposes.
I prefer forecasting financial instruments including stocks using supply/demand concepts as a start and nothing better than in combination with technical analysis when available.
Most all traded instruments have price and volume as a minimum set of data. The longer term volume charts are more useful – monthly and weekly.
Gold as measured by the GLD volume has now decreased to 2007 volume level. It has been consistently coming down in price and volume since the volume extreme in August 2011 when prices of gold went parabolic. (All parabolic moves end the temporary trend and with a major correction – see Chart below).


As gold is in a strong fundamental uptrend, the low volume shows decline simultaneous decline in prices is favorable for when buying beings prices should begin moving into a new uptrend as was the case in August 2009.

Gold and the Dow in 200 Years and Now

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The Dow/Gold Ratio is 7, up from it’s recent low of 5.

Historically, here is the Dow/Gold Ratio since 1900.

Historical Gold Prices from 1714 to 2012

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The Central Value Theory(tm) says that value does not change but it fluctuates over time returning to the mean value.  Gold is such currency whose value fluctuates in price.

(c) The Central Value Theory ™ 2011, All Rights Reserved,  Basilio Chen

Chart is from National Geographics

Commodity and Equity Cycles

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Here is a good chart to look at following the flow of investment cash.

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